The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

October 29, 2018

Summary
  • Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets

  • The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows

  • The structural factors that have kept long-term interest rates low and term premia repressed are fading

  • We expect a measured move in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.25 to 4.40 percent, much sooner than the market anticipates

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